The negative growth of global container cargo volume in the first two months of 2019 has caused concern in the industry

Maersk: I don't understand why people are so confident about 19 years?

According to Lars Jensen, CEO of Seaintelligence Consulting, these eye-dazzling Numbers should be something to ponder, and an important reason to keep an eye on the industry all year long.

In the face of this very surprising negative growth data! Has someone already been punched in the face? Is it maersk CEO S renSkou or hapag-lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen?

Currently, the two ceos represent different ends of the spectrum in terms of their expectations for the container market in 2019. First of all, the market recovery in 2018 does constitute a market return trend, but this trend from the end of 2017 to the end of 2018 seems less optimistic.

If this trend continues, there is no doubt that maersk CEO S renSkou will be right and optimists will be slapped in the face!

Lars Jensen, chief executive of Seaintelligence Consulting, also noted the data and concluded that the number of containers dropped this year was equivalent to 500,000 fewer 20-foot containers than last year.

He noted declines in most parts of the world. Based on these Numbers, there is one cause for concern - a trade war between China and the United States!

By looking at the sum of the two months, janssen said, Chinese New Year also has a big impact on February container volumes.

It is understood that the two most serious setbacks in the past two months are in Oceania, including Australia and New Zealand. It is just the biggest setback they have experienced so far. Their container volume has dropped by 9.2%!

On the ShippingWatch website in recent weeks, the ceos of the world's leading liner companies have openly discussed their widely different expectations for the development of the container market in 2019.

Maersk expects global container shipping to grow between 1 and 3 per cent in 2019, while Germany's hapag-lloyd relies on forecasts from Drewry and IHS, the shipping consultants, which expect it to grow between 4.1 and 4.7 per cent.

Why the super-optimism? That left maersk CEO Skou ShippingWatch saying in an interview that he still doesn't understand "why some people are super optimistic about 2019," as tensions over a trade war between China and the United States remain unresolved and the European economy has slowed.

In an interview with ShippingWatch, Habben Jansen, CEO of hapag-lloyd, responded that he favored analyst forecasts.

Within 20 years, six out of ten liner companies had disappeared. Within 20 years, "it's hard for me to understand why the projections are going down or deviating from what the experts say," he said.

Maersk is pessimistic about growth prospects for 2019, with several analysts pointing out recently that expectations were set so low that the group could easily meet its targets.

S ren Skou, CEO of maersk, said in an interview with foreign media that he was not optimistic about the prospect of 19 years

The focus in 2019, and the wide variation in market forecasts, is the result of several factors: the container industry needs to experience a decent global growth, which requires more transport.

The world trade organisation recently slashed its forecast for global growth from 3.7 per cent to just 2.6 per cent. Less than ten months from now, the IMO 2020 sulfur regulations will completely reshape the fuel market.

Most ships will use less sulphur, but also more expensive fuel. It is crucial for the financial affairs of a shipping company whether they can pass the bill on to their customer, the shipper.

According to Maersk and hapag-lloyd, the balance between the delivery of new ships and the abandonment of old ones is not enough to ensure a stronger market. In particular, many of the new large ships will enter the market - so much so that many liner companies are starting to deploy large ships on other trade routes, rather than the traditional asia-europe operations. Such as mediterranean-asia.

Will 2019 be as maersk predicted? Will optimists get hit in the face? You are welcome to express your opinion!

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